FRAG 20 · BO5
result vs prediction
Fisher College#85 in the world · loss 0:3series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fisher College ban
50%71%
Fisher College · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +21%Wildcard · 3 maps
NukeWildcard pick
40%67%
Fisher College · 1 mapedge Wildcard +27%Wildcard · 2 maps
InfernoFisher College pick
60%40%
Fisher College · 1 mapedge Fisher College +20%Wildcard · 1 map
AncientWildcard ban
60%50%
Fisher College · 1 mapedge Fisher College +10%Wildcard · 0 maps
OverpassFisher College pick
50%60%
Fisher College · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +10%Wildcard · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFisher College remove Dust2
2. BanWildcard remove Ancient
3. PickFisher College take Inferno
4. PickWildcard take Nuke
5. PickFisher College take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Fisher College 27%Wildcard 73%
The model gave 73% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Fisher College 47%Wildcard 53%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
Fisher College 72%Wildcard 28%
The model gave 72% on Fisher College — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 58%
Series resultWildcard 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3