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Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FKOMARloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFKOMAR pick
40%40%
FKOMAR · 1 mapnearly even +0%Iberian Soul · 1 map
CacheIberian Soul pick
40%50%
FKOMAR · 1 mapedge Iberian Soul +10%Iberian Soul · 0 maps
InfernoFKOMAR ban
50%60%
FKOMAR · 0 mapsedge Iberian Soul +10%Iberian Soul · 1 map
MirageIberian Soul ban
50%40%
FKOMAR · 0 mapsedge FKOMAR +10%Iberian Soul · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFKOMAR remove Inferno
2. BanIberian Soul remove Mirage
3. PickFKOMAR take Ancient
4. PickIberian Soul take Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed0:13
FKOMAR 53%Iberian Soul 47%
The model gave 53% on FKOMAR — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Infernoprediction correct0:13
FKOMAR 37%Iberian Soul 63%
The model gave 63% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Model check result
Model favoriteIberian Soul · 84%
Series resultIberian Soul 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2