WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BlinkDagger pick
43%40%
flacons · 3 mapsnearly even +3%BlinkDagger · 1 map
Mirageflacons pick
50%50%
flacons · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BlinkDagger · 0 maps
AncientBlinkDagger ban
40%50%
flacons · 1 mapedge BlinkDagger +10%BlinkDagger · 0 maps
Anubisflacons ban
40%50%
flacons · 1 mapedge BlinkDagger +10%BlinkDagger · 0 maps
Cacheflacons ban
40%50%
flacons · 1 mapedge BlinkDagger +10%BlinkDagger · 0 maps
NukeBlinkDagger ban
50%40%
flacons · 0 mapsedge flacons +10%BlinkDagger · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banflacons remove Cache
2. BanBlinkDagger remove Ancient
3. Pickflacons take Mirage
4. PickBlinkDagger take Dust2
5. BanBlinkDagger remove Nuke
6. Banflacons remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
flacons 53%BlinkDagger 47%
The model gave 53% on flacons — the map was taken by BlinkDagger.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
flacons 50%BlinkDagger 50%
The model gave 50% on BlinkDagger — the map was taken by BlinkDagger.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlinkDagger · 50%
Series resultBlinkDagger 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2