Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2fnatic ban
53%56%
Fluxo · 13 mapsnearly even -3%fnatic · 14 maps
AnubisFluxo ban
50%55%
Fluxo · 6 mapsedge fnatic +5%fnatic · 16 maps
MirageFluxo pick
67%69%
Fluxo · 8 mapsnearly even -2%fnatic · 9 maps
Nukefnatic ban
62%50%
Fluxo · 17 mapsedge Fluxo +12%fnatic · 0 maps
Infernofnatic pick
50%80%
Fluxo · 8 mapsedge fnatic +30%fnatic · 6 maps
AncientFluxo ban
40%67%
Fluxo · 1 mapedge fnatic +27%fnatic · 11 maps
Cachepossible decider
56%70%
Fluxo · 5 mapsedge fnatic +14%fnatic · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickFluxo take Mirage
4. Pickfnatic take Inferno
5. Banfnatic remove Dust2
6. BanFluxo remove Anubis
DeciderCache (56% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Fluxo 22%fnatic 78%
The model gave 78% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Fluxo 42%fnatic 58%
The model gave 58% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 54%
Series resultfnatic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2