ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ShindeN#77 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
64%40%
Fluxo · 21 mapedge Fluxo +24%ShindeN · 6 maps
Dust2Fluxo ban
56%63%
Fluxo · 12 mapsedge ShindeN +7%ShindeN · 4 maps
InfernoShindeN pick
50%67%
Fluxo · 8 mapsedge ShindeN +17%ShindeN · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
62%50%
Fluxo · 9 mapsedge Fluxo +12%ShindeN · 4 maps
CacheShindeN ban
56%29%
Fluxo · 5 mapsedge Fluxo +27%ShindeN · 3 maps
AncientFluxo ban
40%60%
Fluxo · 1 mapedge ShindeN +20%ShindeN · 6 maps
AnubisShindeN ban
36%50%
Fluxo · 7 mapsedge ShindeN +14%ShindeN · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanShindeN remove Anubis
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickShindeN take Inferno
5. BanShindeN remove Cache
6. BanFluxo remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (62% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
Fluxo 31%ShindeN 69%
The model gave 69% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Dust2prediction correct1:13
Fluxo 47%ShindeN 53%
The model gave 53% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
Fluxo 76%ShindeN 24%
The model gave 76% on Fluxo — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 58%
Series resultShindeN 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3