FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#63 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Signatusloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSignatus ban
70%50%
Fluxo · 16 mapsedge Fluxo +20%Signatus · 0 maps
NukeFluxo pick
58%50%
Fluxo · 15 mapsedge Fluxo +8%Signatus · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
59%50%
Fluxo · 13 mapsedge Fluxo +9%Signatus · 0 maps
CacheFluxo ban
53%50%
Fluxo · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Signatus · 0 maps
Dust2Fluxo ban
47%50%
Fluxo · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Signatus · 0 maps
AnubisSignatus pick
43%50%
Fluxo · 10 mapsedge Signatus +7%Signatus · 0 maps
DefaultSignatus ban
60%50%
Fluxo · 1 mapedge Fluxo +10%Signatus · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Dust2
2. BanSignatus remove Mirage
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickSignatus take Anubis
5. BanSignatus remove Default
6. BanFluxo remove Cache
DeciderInferno (59% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:0
Fluxo 44%Signatus 56%
The model gave 56% on Signatus — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
Fluxo 56%Signatus 44%
The model gave 56% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 78%
Series resultFluxo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2