PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#58 in the world · win 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Turma do Pagodeloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
65%50%
Fluxo · 22 mapsedge Fluxo +15%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
Dust2Fluxo pick
53%50%
Fluxo · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
54%33%
Fluxo · 9 mapsedge Fluxo +21%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode pick
64%60%
Fluxo · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
AnubisFluxo ban
40%40%
Fluxo · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
CacheTurma do Pagode ban
50%50%
Fluxo · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%67%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +17%Turma do Pagode · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
3. PickFluxo take Dust2
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Mirage
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Cache
6. BanFluxo remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (54% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Fluxo 50%Turma do Pagode 50%
The model gave 50% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 79%
Series resultFluxo 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1