ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest RED#244 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%59%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +9%Marsborne · 13 maps
InfernoMarsborne pick
50%60%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +10%Marsborne · 11 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%58%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +8%Marsborne · 8 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
50%64%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +14%Marsborne · 7 maps
NukeFlyQuest RED pick
50%50%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 6 maps
AnubisFlyQuest RED ban
50%67%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Marsborne · 5 maps
DefaultFlyQuest RED ban
50%67%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Marsborne · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest RED remove Anubis
2. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
3. PickFlyQuest RED take Nuke
4. PickMarsborne take Inferno
5. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
6. BanFlyQuest RED remove Default
DeciderAncient (50% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
FlyQuest RED 39%Marsborne 61%
The model gave 61% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction correct2:13
FlyQuest RED 38%Marsborne 62%
The model gave 62% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 71%
Series resultMarsborne 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2