ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest RED#244 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWanted Goons pick
40%40%
FlyQuest RED · 1 mapnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 6 maps
MirageFlyQuest RED pick
40%30%
FlyQuest RED · 1 mapedge FlyQuest RED +10%Wanted Goons · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%29%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest RED +21%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
NukeWanted Goons ban
50%29%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest RED +21%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
AnubisFlyQuest RED ban
50%50%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 2 maps
CacheWanted Goons ban
50%40%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest RED +10%Wanted Goons · 1 map
InfernoFlyQuest RED ban
50%60%
FlyQuest RED · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +10%Wanted Goons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest RED remove Inferno
2. BanWanted Goons remove Cache
3. PickFlyQuest RED take Mirage
4. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
5. BanWanted Goons remove Nuke
6. BanFlyQuest RED remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (50% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
FlyQuest RED 64%Wanted Goons 36%
The model gave 64% on FlyQuest RED — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
FlyQuest RED 69%Wanted Goons 31%
The model gave 69% on FlyQuest RED — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 52%
Series resultWanted Goons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2