ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2LFO 8 ban
70%43%
FlyQuest · 6 mapsedge FlyQuest +27%LFO 8 · 3 maps
InfernoFlyQuest ban
67%63%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsnearly even +4%LFO 8 · 4 maps
AnubisFlyQuest pick
67%50%
FlyQuest · 8 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%LFO 8 · 0 maps
CacheLFO 8 pick
71%63%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge FlyQuest +8%LFO 8 · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
71%50%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge FlyQuest +21%LFO 8 · 4 maps
AncientFlyQuest ban
50%43%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge FlyQuest +7%LFO 8 · 3 maps
DefaultLFO 8 ban
50%33%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%LFO 8 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
2. BanLFO 8 remove Dust2
3. PickFlyQuest take Anubis
4. PickLFO 8 take Cache
5. BanLFO 8 remove Default
6. BanFlyQuest remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:3
FlyQuest 57%LFO 8 43%
The model gave 57% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
FlyQuest 78%LFO 8 22%
The model gave 78% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 74%
Series resultFlyQuest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2