IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#67 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
paiN#29 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%63%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge paiN +13%paiN · 4 maps
AnubisFlyQuest pick
71%57%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge FlyQuest +14%paiN · 3 maps
NukepaiN pick
60%44%
FlyQuest · 1 mapedge FlyQuest +16%paiN · 5 maps
InfernopaiN ban
50%40%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +10%paiN · 1 map
OverpassFlyQuest ban
50%44%
FlyQuest · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +6%paiN · 5 maps
MirageFlyQuest ban
33%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge paiN +17%paiN · 2 maps
AncientpaiN ban
43%50%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge paiN +7%paiN · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Overpass
2. BanpaiN remove Ancient
3. PickFlyQuest take Anubis
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Inferno
6. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
FlyQuest 62%paiN 38%
The model gave 62% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by paiN.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
FlyQuest 68%paiN 32%
The model gave 68% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 80%
Series resultpaiN 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2