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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFlyQuest pick
69%67%
FlyQuest · 9 mapsnearly even +2%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
Dust2THUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
73%70%
FlyQuest · 7 mapsnearly even +3%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
70%64%
FlyQuest · 6 mapsedge FlyQuest +6%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 7 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
75%56%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +19%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
AncientFlyQuest ban
57%50%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge FlyQuest +7%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 maps
CacheTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
75%50%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +25%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
DefaultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Default
3. PickFlyQuest take Anubis
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Dust2
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Cache
6. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (70% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
FlyQuest 60%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 40%
The model gave 60% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
FlyQuest 50%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 50%
The model gave 50% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 81%
Series resultFlyQuest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2