WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionFFNloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFN ban
50%50%
FN · 0 mapsnearly even +0%NEXORA · 4 maps
AncientNEXORA ban
40%33%
FN · 1 mapedge FN +7%NEXORA · 2 maps
NukeFN ban
50%29%
FN · 0 mapsedge FN +21%NEXORA · 3 maps
Dust2NEXORA pick
50%67%
FN · 0 mapsedge NEXORA +17%NEXORA · 2 maps
CacheFN pick
50%40%
FN · 0 mapsedge FN +10%NEXORA · 1 map
InfernoNEXORA ban
40%50%
FN · 1 mapedge NEXORA +10%NEXORA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFN remove Mirage
2. BanNEXORA remove Inferno
3. PickFN take Cache
4. PickNEXORA take Dust2
5. BanNEXORA remove Ancient
6. BanFN remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
FN 47%NEXORA 53%
The model gave 53% on NEXORA — the map was taken by NEXORA.
Anubisprediction missed2:13
FN 53%NEXORA 47%
The model gave 53% on FN — the map was taken by NEXORA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFN · 53%
Series resultNEXORA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2