ROG JOURNEY Summer 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliance#22 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernofnatic pick
77%79%
fnatic · 9 mapsnearly even -2%Alliance · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
53%33%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +20%Alliance · 5 maps
Dust2Alliance pick
42%56%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge Alliance +14%Alliance · 5 maps
MirageAlliance ban
60%50%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +10%Alliance · 0 maps
Ancientfnatic ban
56%56%
fnatic · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Alliance · 5 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%54%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Alliance · 9 maps
OverpassAlliance ban
33%29%
fnatic · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Alliance · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanAlliance remove Mirage
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickAlliance take Dust2
5. BanAlliance remove Overpass
6. Banfnatic remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (53% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed4:13
fnatic 72%Alliance 28%
The model gave 72% on fnatic — the map was taken by Alliance.
Dust2prediction missed19:17
fnatic 34%Alliance 66%
The model gave 66% on Alliance — the map was taken by fnatic.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
fnatic 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on fnatic — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 61%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3