Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#37 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBL#62 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
67%50%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +17%BBL · 0 maps
Anubisfnatic pick
73%50%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +23%BBL · 0 maps
CacheBBL ban
69%50%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +19%BBL · 0 maps
Dust2BBL ban
62%50%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +12%BBL · 0 maps
MirageBBL pick
50%50%
fnatic · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BBL · 0 maps
Infernofnatic ban
71%40%
fnatic · 3 mapsedge fnatic +31%BBL · 1 map
Defaultfnatic ban
50%60%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge BBL +10%BBL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Default
2. BanBBL remove Cache
3. Pickfnatic take Anubis
4. PickBBL take Mirage
5. BanBBL remove Dust2
6. Banfnatic remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
fnatic 72%BBL 28%
The model gave 72% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
fnatic 77%BBL 23%
The model gave 77% on fnatic — the map was taken by BBL.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
fnatic 67%BBL 33%
The model gave 67% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 58%
Series resultfnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3