ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2fnatic ban
53%69%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge BRUTE +16%BRUTE · 12 maps
Infernofnatic pick
77%50%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +27%BRUTE · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%42%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +18%BRUTE · 8 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
53%40%
fnatic · 13 mapsedge fnatic +13%BRUTE · 1 map
Nukefnatic ban
50%54%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even -4%BRUTE · 9 maps
OverpassBRUTE pick
33%73%
fnatic · 2 mapsedge BRUTE +40%BRUTE · 7 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
58%50%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge fnatic +8%BRUTE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickBRUTE take Overpass
5. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
6. Banfnatic remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (60% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
fnatic 32%BRUTE 68%
The model gave 68% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
fnatic 53%BRUTE 47%
The model gave 53% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
fnatic 63%BRUTE 37%
The model gave 63% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 67%
Series resultfnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3