Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO5
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 2:3series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Eternal Fire#30 in the world · win 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
65%72%
fnatic · 22 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 25 maps
Cachefnatic pick
76%59%
fnatic · 21 mapedge fnatic +17%Eternal Fire · 23 maps
MirageEternal Fire ban
44%41%
fnatic · 12 mapsnearly even +3%Eternal Fire · 18 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
33%68%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge Eternal Fire +35%Eternal Fire · 18 maps
Infernopossible decider
63%56%
fnatic · 15 mapsedge fnatic +7%Eternal Fire · 14 maps
Anubisfnatic pick
71%53%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +18%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
DefaultEternal Fire pick
50%57%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Dust2
2. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
3. Pickfnatic take Cache
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. Pickfnatic take Anubis
6. PickEternal Fire take Default
DeciderInferno (63% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
fnatic 71%Eternal Fire 29%
The model gave 71% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
fnatic 39%Eternal Fire 61%
The model gave 61% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by fnatic.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
fnatic 71%Eternal Fire 29%
The model gave 71% on fnatic — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
fnatic 17%Eternal Fire 83%
The model gave 83% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
fnatic 53%Eternal Fire 47%
The model gave 53% on fnatic — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 63%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 5