Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
K27#44 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
69%63%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +6%K27 · 15 maps
AncientK27 ban
69%67%
fnatic · 12 mapsnearly even +2%K27 · 11 maps
Anubisfnatic pick
57%50%
fnatic · 17 mapsedge fnatic +7%K27 · 6 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
56%70%
fnatic · 14 mapsedge K27 +14%K27 · 6 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%22%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge fnatic +28%K27 · 14 maps
Cachepossible decider
70%75%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge K27 +5%K27 · 4 maps
InfernoK27 ban
83%50%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge fnatic +33%K27 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanK27 remove Inferno
3. Pickfnatic take Anubis
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Ancient
6. Banfnatic remove Dust2
DeciderCache (70% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
fnatic 55%K27 45%
The model gave 55% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Mirageprediction missed13:16
fnatic 54%K27 46%
The model gave 54% on fnatic — the map was taken by K27.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
fnatic 44%K27 56%
The model gave 56% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 55%
Series resultK27 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3