ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
46%60%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge Misa +14%Misa · 16 maps
MirageMisa ban
60%43%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +17%Misa · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%45%
fnatic · 12 mapsedge fnatic +5%Misa · 7 maps
Infernofnatic pick
77%40%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +37%Misa · 6 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%46%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Misa · 9 maps
AncientMisa ban
50%50%
fnatic · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 0 maps
Defaultfnatic ban
50%50%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. Banfnatic remove Default
DeciderAnubis (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
fnatic 34%Misa 66%
The model gave 66% on Misa — the map was taken by fnatic.
Cacheprediction missed16:19
fnatic 53%Misa 47%
The model gave 53% on fnatic — the map was taken by Misa.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
fnatic 55%Misa 45%
The model gave 55% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 71%
Series resultfnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3