1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPhantom pick
70%52%
fnatic · 16 mapsedge fnatic +18%Phantom · 17 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%57%
fnatic · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 10 maps
CachePhantom ban
76%33%
fnatic · 17 mapsedge fnatic +43%Phantom · 2 maps
Dust2Phantom ban
50%55%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge Phantom +5%Phantom · 7 maps
Miragefnatic ban
36%45%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge Phantom +9%Phantom · 7 maps
Anubisfnatic pick
79%40%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +39%Phantom · 6 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%47%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Phantom · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanPhantom remove Cache
3. Pickfnatic take Anubis
4. PickPhantom take Ancient
5. BanPhantom remove Dust2
6. Banfnatic remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed14:16
fnatic 86%Phantom 14%
The model gave 86% on fnatic — the map was taken by Phantom.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
fnatic 65%Phantom 35%
The model gave 65% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
fnatic 50%Phantom 50%
The model gave 50% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 67%
Series resultfnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3