BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
58%46%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge fnatic +12%Rune Eaters · 9 maps
Dust2Rune Eaters pick
38%60%
fnatic · 4 mapsedge Rune Eaters +22%Rune Eaters · 6 maps
Ancientfnatic ban
50%55%
fnatic · 2 mapsedge Rune Eaters +5%Rune Eaters · 7 maps
Infernofnatic pick
70%50%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge fnatic +20%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
AnubisRune Eaters ban
45%50%
fnatic · 7 mapsedge Rune Eaters +5%Rune Eaters · 0 maps
Defaultfnatic ban
50%50%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
50%33%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge fnatic +17%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Default
2. BanRune Eaters remove Anubis
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickRune Eaters take Dust2
5. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
6. Banfnatic remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (58% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
fnatic 42%Rune Eaters 58%
The model gave 58% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by fnatic.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
fnatic 72%Rune Eaters 28%
The model gave 72% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 75%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2