ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%59%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge SPARTA +9%SPARTA · 25 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%47%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +13%SPARTA · 15 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
55%33%
fnatic · 7 mapsedge fnatic +22%SPARTA · 14 maps
Infernofnatic pick
77%50%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +27%SPARTA · 8 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
53%50%
fnatic · 13 mapsnearly even +3%SPARTA · 2 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%50%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 14 maps
Overpassfnatic ban
33%45%
fnatic · 2 mapsedge SPARTA +12%SPARTA · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. Banfnatic remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (60% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
fnatic 39%SPARTA 61%
The model gave 61% on SPARTA — the map was taken by fnatic.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
fnatic 73%SPARTA 27%
The model gave 73% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 53%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2