Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFOKUS pick
60%43%
FOKUS · 6 mapsedge FOKUS +17%Noir Verse · 3 maps
Dust2FOKUS ban
60%50%
FOKUS · 6 mapsedge FOKUS +10%Noir Verse · 2 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
43%56%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge Noir Verse +13%Noir Verse · 5 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
43%75%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge Noir Verse +32%Noir Verse · 4 maps
OverpassNoir Verse ban
71%40%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +31%Noir Verse · 1 map
InfernoNoir Verse ban
57%50%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +7%Noir Verse · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
2. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
3. PickFOKUS take Ancient
4. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
5. BanNoir Verse remove Overpass
6. BanFOKUS remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
FOKUS 60%Noir Verse 40%
The model gave 60% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
FOKUS 18%Noir Verse 82%
The model gave 82% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 83%
Series resultFOKUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2