Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OG#203 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FOKUS pick
67%40%
FOKUS · 8 mapsedge FOKUS +27%OG · 1 map
AncientOG ban
58%50%
FOKUS · 8 mapsedge FOKUS +8%OG · 0 maps
OverpassFOKUS ban
63%63%
FOKUS · 4 mapsnearly even +0%OG · 4 maps
NukeOG ban
44%50%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge OG +6%OG · 2 maps
InfernoOG pick
63%67%
FOKUS · 4 mapsnearly even -4%OG · 2 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
43%60%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge OG +17%OG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
2. BanOG remove Ancient
3. PickFOKUS take Dust2
4. PickOG take Inferno
5. BanOG remove Nuke
6. BanFOKUS remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
FOKUS 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
FOKUS 77%OG 23%
The model gave 77% on FOKUS — the map was taken by OG.
Overpassprediction correct13:7
FOKUS 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 61%
Series resultFOKUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3