Parken Challenger Championship Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
STATE#137 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
67%43%
Fortress · 2 mapsedge Fortress +24%STATE · 3 maps
OverpassFortress pick
67%43%
Fortress · 2 mapsedge Fortress +24%STATE · 3 maps
InfernoSTATE pick
50%50%
Fortress · 2 mapsnearly even +0%STATE · 2 maps
MirageFortress ban
40%50%
Fortress · 1 mapedge STATE +10%STATE · 2 maps
NukeFortress ban
50%67%
Fortress · 0 mapsedge STATE +17%STATE · 2 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
50%60%
Fortress · 0 mapsedge STATE +10%STATE · 1 map
Dust2STATE ban
60%50%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Fortress +10%STATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Nuke
2. BanSTATE remove Dust2
3. PickFortress take Overpass
4. PickSTATE take Inferno
5. BanSTATE remove Anubis
6. BanFortress remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (67% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Fortress 53%STATE 47%
The model gave 53% on Fortress — the map was taken by STATE.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Fortress 31%STATE 69%
The model gave 69% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 67%
Series resultSTATE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2