Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FORZE Reload#70 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
benched gods#162 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFORZE Reload pick
50%40%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsedge FORZE Reload +10%benched gods · 6 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
60%67%
FORZE Reload · 1 mapedge benched gods +7%benched gods · 5 maps
Anubisbenched gods ban
50%38%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsedge FORZE Reload +12%benched gods · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 4 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
50%57%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsedge benched gods +7%benched gods · 3 maps
DefaultFORZE Reload ban
50%67%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsedge benched gods +17%benched gods · 2 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
50%40%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsedge FORZE Reload +10%benched gods · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
2. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
3. PickFORZE Reload take Ancient
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Anubis
6. BanFORZE Reload remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
FORZE Reload 40%benched gods 60%
The model gave 60% on benched gods — the map was taken by benched gods.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
FORZE Reload 63%benched gods 37%
The model gave 63% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by benched gods.
Model check result
Model favoritebenched gods · 59%
Series resultbenched gods 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2