Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FORZE Reload#75 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
50%50%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsnearly even +0%DONSTU · 18 maps
Dust2FORZE Reload pick
50%35%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsedge FORZE Reload +15%DONSTU · 16 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%46%
FORZE Reload · 2 mapsnearly even +4%DONSTU · 9 maps
AncientDONSTU ban
50%43%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsedge FORZE Reload +7%DONSTU · 10 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
50%50%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsnearly even +0%DONSTU · 8 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
60%33%
FORZE Reload · 1 mapedge FORZE Reload +27%DONSTU · 5 maps
DefaultFORZE Reload ban
50%67%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsedge DONSTU +17%DONSTU · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
2. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
3. PickFORZE Reload take Dust2
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Ancient
6. BanFORZE Reload remove Default
DeciderCache (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:2
FORZE Reload 47%DONSTU 53%
The model gave 53% on DONSTU — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
FORZE Reload 77%DONSTU 23%
The model gave 77% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 53%
Series resultFORZE Reload 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2