WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
FORZE Reload#70 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BAKS#112 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
62%64%
FORZE Reload · 9 mapsnearly even -2%BAKS · 7 maps
CacheBAKS pick
67%69%
FORZE Reload · 5 mapsnearly even -2%BAKS · 9 maps
NukeFORZE Reload pick
73%40%
FORZE Reload · 7 mapsedge FORZE Reload +33%BAKS · 6 maps
MirageBAKS ban
50%38%
FORZE Reload · 8 mapsedge FORZE Reload +12%BAKS · 4 maps
AncientFORZE Reload ban
57%67%
FORZE Reload · 3 mapsedge BAKS +10%BAKS · 5 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%50%
FORZE Reload · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BAKS · 0 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
50%50%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BAKS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickFORZE Reload take Nuke
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Mirage
6. BanFORZE Reload remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (62% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
FORZE Reload 44%BAKS 56%
The model gave 56% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Nukeprediction missed17:19
FORZE Reload 82%BAKS 18%
The model gave 82% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFORZE Reload · 53%
Series resultBAKS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2