Kibertochka Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FORZE Reload#86 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
58%58%
FORZE Reload · 8 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUSTEC · 27 maps
AnubisFORZE Reload ban
50%61%
FORZE Reload · 4 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +11%ex-RUSTEC · 19 maps
NukeFORZE Reload pick
67%43%
FORZE Reload · 5 mapsedge FORZE Reload +24%ex-RUSTEC · 17 maps
Mirageex-RUSTEC ban
55%57%
FORZE Reload · 7 mapsnearly even -2%ex-RUSTEC · 10 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
63%43%
FORZE Reload · 4 mapsedge FORZE Reload +20%ex-RUSTEC · 10 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
50%47%
FORZE Reload · 0 mapsnearly even +3%ex-RUSTEC · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%63%
FORZE Reload · 1 mapedge ex-RUSTEC +23%ex-RUSTEC · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
3. PickFORZE Reload take Nuke
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Mirage
6. BanFORZE Reload remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (40% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
FORZE Reload 75%ex-RUSTEC 25%
The model gave 75% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
FORZE Reload 47%ex-RUSTEC 53%
The model gave 53% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Model check result
Model favoriteFORZE Reload · 64%
Series resultFORZE Reload 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2