WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
FORZE Reload#70 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
62%45%
FORZE Reload · 9 mapsedge FORZE Reload +17%UPGRADE · 7 maps
NukeFORZE Reload pick
67%38%
FORZE Reload · 8 mapsedge FORZE Reload +29%UPGRADE · 4 maps
AnubisFORZE Reload ban
50%64%
FORZE Reload · 4 mapsedge UPGRADE +14%UPGRADE · 7 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
64%43%
FORZE Reload · 7 mapsedge FORZE Reload +21%UPGRADE · 3 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
50%40%
FORZE Reload · 8 mapsedge FORZE Reload +10%UPGRADE · 1 map
AncientFORZE Reload ban
63%57%
FORZE Reload · 4 mapsedge FORZE Reload +6%UPGRADE · 3 maps
DefaultUPGRADE pick
40%60%
FORZE Reload · 1 mapedge UPGRADE +20%UPGRADE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFORZE Reload remove Anubis
2. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
3. PickFORZE Reload take Nuke
4. PickUPGRADE take Default
5. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
6. BanFORZE Reload remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (62% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
FORZE Reload 68%UPGRADE 32%
The model gave 68% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
FORZE Reload 34%UPGRADE 66%
The model gave 66% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
FORZE Reload 60%UPGRADE 40%
The model gave 60% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 56%
Series resultUPGRADE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3