Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Four Magic#181 in the world · win 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Optibet#221 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOptibet pick
67%63%
Four Magic · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Optibet · 4 maps
AnubisFour Magic pick
67%57%
Four Magic · 2 mapsedge Four Magic +10%Optibet · 3 maps
CacheOptibet ban
67%50%
Four Magic · 2 mapsedge Four Magic +17%Optibet · 0 maps
MirageFour Magic ban
40%40%
Four Magic · 1 mapnearly even +0%Optibet · 1 map
Dust2Optibet ban
40%50%
Four Magic · 1 mapedge Optibet +10%Optibet · 0 maps
NukeFour Magic ban
50%40%
Four Magic · 0 mapsedge Four Magic +10%Optibet · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFour Magic remove Nuke
2. BanOptibet remove Cache
3. PickFour Magic take Anubis
4. PickOptibet take Ancient
5. BanOptibet remove Dust2
6. BanFour Magic remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Four Magic 53%Optibet 47%
The model gave 53% on Four Magic — the map was taken by Four Magic.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Four Magic 52%Optibet 48%
The model gave 52% on Four Magic — the map was taken by Optibet.
Dust2prediction missed19:16
Four Magic 40%Optibet 60%
The model gave 60% on Optibet — the map was taken by Four Magic.
Model check result
Model favoriteFour Magic · 64%
Series resultFour Magic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3