PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
33%63%
FURIA · 2 mapsedge Falcons +30%Falcons · 4 maps
MirageFURIA ban
50%67%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge Falcons +17%Falcons · 2 maps
NukeFalcons ban
50%40%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge FURIA +10%Falcons · 1 map
InfernoFURIA pick
71%40%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge FURIA +31%Falcons · 1 map
OverpassFalcons ban
57%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge FURIA +7%Falcons · 0 maps
AncientFURIA ban
50%67%
FURIA · 0 mapsedge Falcons +17%Falcons · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Ancient
2. BanFalcons remove Overpass
3. PickFURIA take Inferno
4. PickFalcons take Dust2
5. BanFalcons remove Nuke
6. BanFURIA remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
FURIA 31%Falcons 69%
The model gave 69% on Falcons — the map was taken by FURIA.
Nukeprediction missed20:22
FURIA 63%Falcons 37%
The model gave 63% on FURIA — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction correct17:19
FURIA 23%Falcons 77%
The model gave 77% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 55%
Series resultFalcons 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3