IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · loss 0:3series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Falcons#5 in the world · win 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
40%70%
FURIA · 6 mapsedge Falcons +30%Falcons · 16 maps
MirageFURIA pick
64%38%
FURIA · 7 mapsedge FURIA +26%Falcons · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
55%56%
FURIA · 7 mapsnearly even -1%Falcons · 5 maps
InfernoFURIA pick
67%44%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge FURIA +23%Falcons · 5 maps
AncientFURIA ban
50%62%
FURIA · 0 mapsedge Falcons +12%Falcons · 9 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
70%50%
FURIA · 6 mapsedge FURIA +20%Falcons · 0 maps
AnubisFalcons pick
50%71%
FURIA · 0 mapsedge Falcons +21%Falcons · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Ancient
2. BanFalcons remove Overpass
3. PickFURIA take Inferno
4. PickFalcons take Dust2
5. PickFURIA take Mirage
6. PickFalcons take Anubis
DeciderNuke (55% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
FURIA 76%Falcons 24%
The model gave 76% on FURIA — the map was taken by Falcons.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
FURIA 26%Falcons 74%
The model gave 74% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
FURIA 74%Falcons 26%
The model gave 74% on FURIA — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 63%
Series resultFalcons 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3