FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#5 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2#7 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2G2 ban
57%31%
FURIA · 10 mapsedge FURIA +26%G2 · 9 maps
AncientFURIA ban
55%47%
FURIA · 7 mapsedge FURIA +8%G2 · 11 maps
MirageFURIA pick
62%69%
FURIA · 9 mapsedge G2 +7%G2 · 9 maps
InfernoG2 pick
56%73%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge G2 +17%G2 · 11 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
29%40%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge G2 +11%G2 · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%43%
FURIA · 6 mapsnearly even -3%G2 · 3 maps
NukeG2 ban
64%50%
FURIA · 7 mapsedge FURIA +14%G2 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanG2 remove Nuke
3. PickFURIA take Mirage
4. PickG2 take Inferno
5. BanG2 remove Dust2
6. BanFURIA remove Ancient
DeciderCache (40% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
FURIA 55%G2 45%
The model gave 55% on FURIA — the map was taken by G2.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
FURIA 77%G2 23%
The model gave 77% on FURIA — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 65%
Series resultG2 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2