PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HEROIC#26 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHEROIC pick
43%60%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge HEROIC +17%HEROIC · 1 map
Dust2FURIA ban
40%60%
FURIA · 1 mapedge HEROIC +20%HEROIC · 1 map
MirageFURIA pick
50%50%
FURIA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC · 0 maps
InfernoHEROIC ban
60%50%
FURIA · 1 mapedge FURIA +10%HEROIC · 0 maps
OverpassHEROIC ban
60%50%
FURIA · 1 mapedge FURIA +10%HEROIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Dust2
2. BanHEROIC remove Overpass
3. PickFURIA take Mirage
4. PickHEROIC take Nuke
5. BanHEROIC remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
FURIA 47%HEROIC 53%
The model gave 53% on HEROIC — the map was taken by FURIA.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
FURIA 63%HEROIC 37%
The model gave 63% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 85%
Series resultFURIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2