Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Legacy#7 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
60%58%
FURIA · 6 mapsnearly even +2%Legacy · 8 maps
InfernoLegacy pick
50%73%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge Legacy +23%Legacy · 7 maps
MirageFURIA ban
60%67%
FURIA · 6 mapsedge Legacy +7%Legacy · 5 maps
NukeLegacy ban
67%38%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge FURIA +29%Legacy · 4 maps
AncientLegacy ban
57%44%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge FURIA +13%Legacy · 5 maps
OverpassFURIA pick
71%40%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge FURIA +31%Legacy · 1 map
AnubisFURIA ban
29%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge Legacy +21%Legacy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanLegacy remove Nuke
3. PickFURIA take Overpass
4. PickLegacy take Inferno
5. BanLegacy remove Ancient
6. BanFURIA remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (60% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
FURIA 60%Legacy 40%
The model gave 60% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
FURIA 79%Legacy 21%
The model gave 79% on FURIA — the map was taken by Legacy.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
FURIA 52%Legacy 48%
The model gave 52% on FURIA — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 75%
Series resultLegacy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3