StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MIBR#12 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFURIA pick
58%54%
FURIA · 8 mapsnearly even +4%MIBR · 9 maps
AncientMIBR ban
50%42%
FURIA · 8 mapsedge FURIA +8%MIBR · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%57%
FURIA · 6 mapsnearly even +3%MIBR · 10 maps
InfernoFURIA ban
57%62%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge MIBR +5%MIBR · 9 maps
CacheMIBR pick
40%67%
FURIA · 6 mapsedge MIBR +27%MIBR · 5 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%50%
FURIA · 10 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR · 0 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
29%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge MIBR +21%MIBR · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. PickFURIA take Mirage
4. PickMIBR take Cache
5. BanMIBR remove Ancient
6. BanFURIA remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
FURIA 42%MIBR 58%
The model gave 58% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
FURIA 56%MIBR 44%
The model gave 56% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
FURIA 25%MIBR 75%
The model gave 75% on MIBR — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 78%
Series resultFURIA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3