PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monte#23 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMonte ban
33%40%
FURIA · 2 mapsedge Monte +7%Monte · 1 map
Dust2Monte pick
40%60%
FURIA · 1 mapedge Monte +20%Monte · 1 map
MirageFURIA pick
50%50%
FURIA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Monte · 0 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
50%60%
FURIA · 0 mapsedge Monte +10%Monte · 1 map
InfernoMonte ban
60%50%
FURIA · 1 mapedge FURIA +10%Monte · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanMonte remove Inferno
3. PickFURIA take Mirage
4. PickMonte take Dust2
5. BanMonte remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
FURIA 40%Monte 60%
The model gave 60% on Monte — the map was taken by FURIA.
Overpassprediction correct13:3
FURIA 53%Monte 47%
The model gave 53% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 82%
Series resultFURIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2