ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURYwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultMARKandLARRY ban
50%60%
FURY · 2 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
NukeFURY pick
60%40%
FURY · 1 mapedge FURY +20%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
Dust2MARKandLARRY ban
40%50%
FURY · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +10%MARKandLARRY · 0 maps
InfernoMARKandLARRY pick
60%50%
FURY · 1 mapedge FURY +10%MARKandLARRY · 0 maps
MirageFURY ban
50%40%
FURY · 0 mapsedge FURY +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURY remove Mirage
2. BanMARKandLARRY remove Dust2
3. PickFURY take Nuke
4. PickMARKandLARRY take Inferno
5. BanMARKandLARRY remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
FURY 72%MARKandLARRY 28%
The model gave 72% on FURY — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
FURY 57%MARKandLARRY 43%
The model gave 57% on FURY — the map was taken by FURY.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
FURY 40%MARKandLARRY 60%
The model gave 60% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by FURY.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURY · 50%
Series resultFURY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3