Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FUT#8 in the world · win 2:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
60%69%
FUT · 6 mapsedge MOUZ +9%MOUZ · 9 maps
AncientFUT pick
73%45%
FUT · 7 mapsedge FUT +28%MOUZ · 7 maps
Dust2FUT ban
25%69%
FUT · 4 mapsedge MOUZ +44%MOUZ · 9 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
33%71%
FUT · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +38%MOUZ · 10 maps
OverpassFUT ban
38%67%
FUT · 4 mapsedge MOUZ +29%MOUZ · 5 maps
InfernoMOUZ ban
50%50%
FUT · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ · 6 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
67%50%
FUT · 2 mapsedge FUT +17%MOUZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFUT remove Dust2
2. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
3. PickFUT take Ancient
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ remove Inferno
6. BanFUT remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (60% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
FUT 78%MOUZ 22%
The model gave 78% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Nukeprediction correct12:16
FUT 15%MOUZ 85%
The model gave 85% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
FUT 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the map was taken by FUT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultFUT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3