NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
39%51%
G2 Ares · 19 mapsedge Honvéd +12%Honvéd · 39 maps
MirageG2 Ares ban
46%47%
G2 Ares · 22 mapsnearly even -1%Honvéd · 32 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
57%38%
G2 Ares · 24 mapsedge G2 Ares +19%Honvéd · 17 maps
AncientHonvéd ban
50%53%
G2 Ares · 14 mapsnearly even -3%Honvéd · 15 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
31%40%
G2 Ares · 9 mapsedge Honvéd +9%Honvéd · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%56%
G2 Ares · 2 mapsedge G2 Ares +11%Honvéd · 14 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
50%45%
G2 Ares · 6 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%Honvéd · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
2. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
3. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
4. PickHonvéd take Dust2
5. BanHonvéd remove Ancient
6. BanG2 Ares remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (67% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
G2 Ares 71%Honvéd 29%
The model gave 71% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Dust2prediction missed16:12
G2 Ares 35%Honvéd 65%
The model gave 65% on Honvéd — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 54%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2