NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemegoshort pick
61%30%
G2 Ares · 14 mapsedge G2 Ares +31%megoshort · 6 maps
Dust2G2 Ares ban
53%44%
G2 Ares · 11 mapsedge G2 Ares +9%megoshort · 5 maps
Infernomegoshort ban
53%40%
G2 Ares · 13 mapsedge G2 Ares +13%megoshort · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
43%40%
G2 Ares · 10 mapsnearly even +3%megoshort · 1 map
Ancientmegoshort ban
55%60%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge megoshort +5%megoshort · 1 map
DefaultG2 Ares pick
50%30%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +20%megoshort · 6 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
57%60%
G2 Ares · 3 mapsnearly even -3%megoshort · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
2. Banmegoshort remove Inferno
3. PickG2 Ares take Default
4. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
5. Banmegoshort remove Ancient
6. BanG2 Ares remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (43% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
G2 Ares 42%megoshort 58%
The model gave 58% on megoshort — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
G2 Ares 81%megoshort 19%
The model gave 81% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 67%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2