NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
50%59%
G2 Ares · 10 mapsedge Misa +9%Misa · 18 maps
MirageMisa ban
59%44%
G2 Ares · 13 mapsedge G2 Ares +15%Misa · 12 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
56%40%
G2 Ares · 12 mapsedge G2 Ares +16%Misa · 6 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
57%46%
G2 Ares · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +11%Misa · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
43%33%
G2 Ares · 10 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%Misa · 2 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%43%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +7%Misa · 10 maps
AncientMisa ban
55%50%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%Misa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (43% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
G2 Ares 68%Misa 32%
The model gave 68% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Misa.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
G2 Ares 38%Misa 62%
The model gave 62% on Misa — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
G2 Ares 65%Misa 35%
The model gave 65% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 59%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3