European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
41%45%
G2 Ares · 18 mapsnearly even -4%Misa · 29 maps
MirageMisa ban
46%48%
G2 Ares · 22 mapsnearly even -2%Misa · 19 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
54%56%
G2 Ares · 22 mapsnearly even -2%Misa · 12 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
G2 Ares · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 24 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
36%42%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge Misa +6%Misa · 22 maps
AncientMisa ban
53%43%
G2 Ares · 13 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%Misa · 3 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%50%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 16 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
G2 Ares 51%Misa 49%
The model gave 51% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
G2 Ares 41%Misa 59%
The model gave 59% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
G2 Ares 45%Misa 55%
The model gave 55% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 60%
Series resultMisa 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3