Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 13:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 13:2
Orion Wanderersloss 2:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOrion Wanderers ban
61%50%
G2 Ares · 29 mapsedge G2 Ares +11%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
MirageG2 Ares ban
40%50%
G2 Ares · 26 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +10%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
Dust2Orion Wanderers ban
37%40%
G2 Ares · 23 mapsnearly even -3%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
52%40%
G2 Ares · 19 mapsedge G2 Ares +12%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
CacheG2 Ares ban
41%50%
G2 Ares · 13 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +9%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
45%40%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
DefaultOrion Wanderers ban
67%50%
G2 Ares · 2 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
2. BanOrion Wanderers remove Inferno
3. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
4. BanOrion Wanderers remove Dust2
5. BanG2 Ares remove Mirage
6. BanOrion Wanderers remove Default
DeciderAncient (52% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:2
G2 Ares 41%Orion Wanderers 59%
The model gave 59% on Orion Wanderers — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 65%
Series resultG2 Ares 13:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1