NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Permitta#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoPermitta ban
52%50%
G2 Ares · 19 mapsnearly even +2%Permitta · 0 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
60%50%
G2 Ares · 16 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%Permitta · 2 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
50%43%
G2 Ares · 12 mapsedge G2 Ares +7%Permitta · 3 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
42%50%
G2 Ares · 15 mapsedge Permitta +8%Permitta · 0 maps
OverpassPermitta pick
42%50%
G2 Ares · 8 mapsedge Permitta +8%Permitta · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
56%40%
G2 Ares · 5 mapsedge G2 Ares +16%Permitta · 1 map
CacheG2 Ares ban
43%71%
G2 Ares · 3 mapsedge Permitta +28%Permitta · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
2. BanPermitta remove Inferno
3. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
4. PickPermitta take Overpass
5. BanPermitta remove Dust2
6. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (56% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
G2 Ares 62%Permitta 38%
The model gave 62% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Permitta.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
G2 Ares 63%Permitta 37%
The model gave 63% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Permitta.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 51%
Series resultPermitta 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2