Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoG2 Ares pick
59%57%
G2 Ares · 30 mapsnearly even +2%RBLS · 3 maps
Dust2G2 Ares ban
37%44%
G2 Ares · 23 mapsedge RBLS +7%RBLS · 5 maps
MirageRBLS ban
42%50%
G2 Ares · 27 mapsedge RBLS +8%RBLS · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
52%56%
G2 Ares · 21 mapnearly even -4%RBLS · 5 maps
CacheRBLS ban
44%57%
G2 Ares · 14 mapsedge RBLS +13%RBLS · 3 maps
AnubisRBLS pick
45%50%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge RBLS +5%RBLS · 4 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%56%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge RBLS +6%RBLS · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
4. PickRBLS take Anubis
5. BanRBLS remove Cache
6. BanG2 Ares remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (52% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct2:13
G2 Ares 42%RBLS 58%
The model gave 58% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Cacheprediction missed16:13
G2 Ares 40%RBLS 60%
The model gave 60% on RBLS — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
G2 Ares 52%RBLS 48%
The model gave 52% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 58%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3