Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#97 in the world · win 13:3series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 13:3
ROUNDS#214 in the world · loss 3:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%60%
G2 Ares · 2 mapsedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 1 map
InfernoG2 Ares ban
40%50%
G2 Ares · 1 mapedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
G2 Ares 40%ROUNDS 60%
The model gave 60% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 60%
Series resultG2 Ares 13:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1