NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#105 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WBT Academy#130 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2G2 Ares ban
39%70%
G2 Ares · 19 mapsedge WBT Academy +31%WBT Academy · 6 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
42%50%
G2 Ares · 20 mapsedge WBT Academy +8%WBT Academy · 4 maps
InfernoWBT Academy ban
50%50%
G2 Ares · 22 mapsnearly even +0%WBT Academy · 0 maps
AnubisWBT Academy pick
40%54%
G2 Ares · 6 mapsedge WBT Academy +14%WBT Academy · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%50%
G2 Ares · 11 mapsnearly even +3%WBT Academy · 2 maps
CacheWBT Academy ban
40%50%
G2 Ares · 6 mapsedge WBT Academy +10%WBT Academy · 0 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%40%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%WBT Academy · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanWBT Academy remove Inferno
3. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
4. PickWBT Academy take Anubis
5. BanWBT Academy remove Cache
6. BanG2 Ares remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
G2 Ares 34%WBT Academy 66%
The model gave 66% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
G2 Ares 45%WBT Academy 55%
The model gave 55% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 55%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2