ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1win#33 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
36%56%
G2 · 7 mapsedge 1win +20%1win · 28 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%59%
G2 · 12 mapsnearly even -3%1win · 18 maps
MirageG2 ban
58%61%
G2 · 8 mapsnearly even -3%1win · 14 maps
Anubis1win ban
50%35%
G2 · 6 mapsedge G2 +15%1win · 13 maps
CacheG2 ban
38%53%
G2 · 4 mapsedge 1win +15%1win · 11 maps
Inferno1win ban
64%63%
G2 · 10 mapsnearly even +1%1win · 4 maps
DefaultG2 pick
50%57%
G2 · 0 mapsedge 1win +7%1win · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Cache
2. Ban1win remove Inferno
3. PickG2 take Default
4. Pick1win take Dust2
5. Ban1win remove Anubis
6. BanG2 remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (56% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
G2 28%1win 72%
The model gave 72% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Ancientprediction correct13:1
G2 50%1win 50%
The model gave 50% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
G2 47%1win 53%
The model gave 53% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 81%
Series result1win 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3